{
 "_about": "Indiana statewide capability and prosperity panel. 92 counties, 12 Economic Growth Regions. Built for the 2026 Indiana Workforce Summit session, Invest Hamilton County with the Indiana Business Research Center.",
 "_assumptions": {
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "qcew_year": 2023,
  "oes_vintage": "May 2024",
  "onet_scale": "IM (importance) is NOT used; LV (level) is, matching Phase 0",
  "min_occ_jobs": 100,
  "min_occs_per_industry": 25,
  "min_county_coverage": 0.4,
  "driver_lq_threshold": 1.4
 },
 "_measured_vs_implied": {
  "industry_mix": "MEASURED locally, BLS QCEW 2023 county by 3-digit NAICS",
  "avg_pay": "MEASURED locally, BLS QCEW 2023 county average annual pay",
  "location_quotient": "MEASURED locally, BLS QCEW",
  "premium_exposure": "MODELLED. Local industry mix weighted by a NATIONAL industry wage premium from BLS OES. Says what a county's mix implies, not what its employers pay.",
  "occupation_mix": "MODELLED. OES publishes no county occupation detail, so the national industry-occupation matrix is applied to the measured local industry mix.",
  "capabilities": "MODELLED, two steps removed. Implied occupation mix weighted by national O*NET skill levels.",
  "capability_index": "MODELLED and ESTIMATED. Capability levels priced with the 9 Phase 0g skill prices that survive occupation-clustered standard errors. The other 26 of 35 do not survive and are excluded."
 },
 "_sources": [
  "BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, 2023 annual, county by 3-digit NAICS, open data API",
  "BLS Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics, May 2024, national 3-digit NAICS by detailed occupation",
  "O*NET 30.2 Skills, Level scale, by detailed occupation",
  "Indiana Department of Workforce Development Economic Growth Regions, 12 regions over 92 counties",
  "Census LEHD LODES Indiana crosswalk, county FIPS to name"
 ],
 "_skill_prices_used": {
  "Judgment and Decision Making": 0.268,
  "Service Orientation": -0.1844,
  "Management of Financial Resources": 0.116,
  "Science": 0.0563,
  "Time Management": 0.1573,
  "Programming": 0.0837,
  "Coordination": 0.1029,
  "Mathematics": -0.0598,
  "Learning Strategies": -0.1034
 },
 "_correlations": {
  "driver_share_vs_avg_pay": {
   "r": -0.2756,
   "n": 76,
   "ci95": [
    -0.4876,
    -0.0277
   ],
   "crosses_zero": false,
   "partial_r_controlling_log_employment": 0.155,
   "partial_ci95": [
    -0.103,
    0.372
   ],
   "partial_crosses_zero": true
  },
  "premium_exposure_vs_avg_pay": {
   "r": 0.4901,
   "n": 76,
   "ci95": [
    0.2895,
    0.6531
   ],
   "crosses_zero": false,
   "partial_r_controlling_log_employment": 0.5123,
   "partial_ci95": [
    0.2668,
    0.69
   ],
   "partial_crosses_zero": false
  },
  "capability_index_vs_avg_pay": {
   "r": 0.481,
   "n": 76,
   "ci95": [
    0.2752,
    0.6387
   ],
   "crosses_zero": false,
   "partial_r_controlling_log_employment": 0.5624,
   "partial_ci95": [
    0.3587,
    0.7142
   ],
   "partial_crosses_zero": false
  },
  "driver_share_vs_premium_exposure": {
   "r": 0.3929,
   "n": 76,
   "ci95": [
    0.22,
    0.5412
   ],
   "crosses_zero": false,
   "partial_r_controlling_log_employment": 0.5918,
   "partial_ci95": [
    0.4402,
    0.7137
   ],
   "partial_crosses_zero": false
  },
  "driver_share_vs_capability_index": {
   "r": 0.3082,
   "n": 76,
   "ci95": [
    0.0822,
    0.515
   ],
   "crosses_zero": false,
   "partial_r_controlling_log_employment": 0.4383,
   "partial_ci95": [
    0.2158,
    0.6381
   ],
   "partial_crosses_zero": false
  }
 },
 "_coverage": {
  "counties_in_panel": 76,
  "counties_dropped": 16,
  "why": "BLS suppresses 3-digit industry detail in small counties, so matched industry employment falls below the 40 percent coverage floor.",
  "dropped_counties": [
   "Carroll",
   "Crawford",
   "Martin",
   "Newton",
   "Ohio",
   "Orange",
   "Owen",
   "Pike",
   "Pulaski",
   "Spencer",
   "Starke",
   "Sullivan",
   "Switzerland",
   "Tipton",
   "Union",
   "Vermillion"
  ],
  "median_emp_in_panel": 14909,
  "selection_warning": "The dropped counties are systematically the smallest. Every statewide figure here describes the 76 counties with usable industry detail, not all 92, and the missing 16 are rural."
 },
 "_inference_note": "Correlations carry a 4,000-replicate percentile bootstrap over counties and a partial correlation controlling log county employment. Indiana's driver industries are concentrated in small rural counties that pay less for reasons unrelated to any location quotient, so the RAW correlation is confounded with county size by construction and the PARTIAL is the one to read. Nothing here is causal. capability_index and premium_exposure are both built from wage data and county average pay is a wage, so part of their relationship is mechanical; driver_share is not built from wages and its relationship is not mechanical.",
 "counties": [
  {
   "fips": "18001",
   "county": "Adams",
   "egr": 3,
   "total_emp": 13255.0,
   "avg_pay": 48619.0,
   "coverage": 0.6723,
   "n_industries": 36,
   "premium_exposure": -0.001617,
   "driver_share": 0.493547,
   "n_drivers": 9,
   "max_lq": 11.59,
   "driver_premium": 0.042019,
   "capabilities": {
    "Judgment and Decision Making": 2.8245,
    "Service Orientation": 2.7622,
    "Management of Financial Resources": 1.2982,
    "Science": 0.6734,
    "Time Management": 2.8548,
    "Programming": 0.5953,
    "Coordination": 2.9896,
    "Mathematics": 2.3276,
    "Learning Strategies": 2.4714
   },
   "capability_index": 0.847929,
   "implied_occupations": 716,
   "capabilities_drivers": {
    "Judgment and Decision Making": 2.8491,
    "Service Orientation": 2.552,
    "Management of Financial Resources": 1.283,
    "Science": 0.7877,
    "Time Management": 2.8639,
    "Programming": 0.6882,
    "Coordination": 2.9172,
    "Mathematics": 2.4151,
    "Learning Strategies": 2.4355
   },
   "capability_index_drivers": 0.898171,
   "deviation_drivers": {
    "over": [
     {
      "name": "Mechanical",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 1.077
     },
     {
      "name": "Controlling Machines and Processes",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.866
     },
     {
      "name": "Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.818
     },
     {
      "name": "Production and Processing",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.759
     },
     {
      "name": "Equipment Maintenance",
      "layer": "skill",
      "dev": 0.733
     },
     {
      "name": "Handling and Moving Objects",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.731
     }
    ],
    "under": [
     {
      "name": "Performing for or Working Directly with the Public",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.806
     },
     {
      "name": "Customer and Personal Service",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.629
     },
     {
      "name": "Assisting and Caring for Others",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.504
     },
     {
      "name": "Psychology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.501
     },
     {
      "name": "Communicating with People Outside the Organization",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.479
     },
     {
      "name": "Therapy and Counseling",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.463
     }
    ]
   },
   "deviation_all": {
    "over": [
     {
      "name": "Mechanical",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.499
     },
     {
      "name": "Handling and Moving Objects",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.426
     },
     {
      "name": "Controlling Machines and Processes",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.419
     },
     {
      "name": "Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.398
     },
     {
      "name": "Production and Processing",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.334
     },
     {
      "name": "Operation and Control",
      "layer": "skill",
      "dev": 0.327
     }
    ],
    "under": [
     {
      "name": "Customer and Personal Service",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.333
     },
     {
      "name": "Performing for or Working Directly with the Public",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.329
     },
     {
      "name": "Communicating with People Outside the Organization",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.324
     },
     {
      "name": "Administrative",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.29
     },
     {
      "name": "Psychology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.286
     },
     {
      "name": "Assisting and Caring for Others",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.27
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "fips": "18003",
   "county": "Allen",
   "egr": 3,
   "total_emp": 196725.0,
   "avg_pay": 57490.0,
   "coverage": 0.7697,
   "n_industries": 64,
   "premium_exposure": -0.009129,
   "driver_share": 0.290245,
   "n_drivers": 13,
   "max_lq": 5.33,
   "driver_premium": 0.027091,
   "capabilities": {
    "Judgment and Decision Making": 2.8675,
    "Service Orientation": 2.8348,
    "Management of Financial Resources": 1.3351,
    "Science": 0.6584,
    "Time Management": 2.8921,
    "Programming": 0.6157,
    "Coordination": 3.0186,
    "Mathematics": 2.3381,
    "Learning Strategies": 2.5204
   },
   "capability_index": 0.854346,
   "implied_occupations": 733,
   "capabilities_drivers": {
    "Judgment and Decision Making": 2.9663,
    "Service Orientation": 2.6502,
    "Management of Financial Resources": 1.3649,
    "Science": 0.6837,
    "Time Management": 2.9528,
    "Programming": 0.7455,
    "Coordination": 2.9609,
    "Mathematics": 2.4758,
    "Learning Strategies": 2.5107
   },
   "capability_index_drivers": 0.926998,
   "deviation_drivers": {
    "over": [
     {
      "name": "Mechanical",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.745
     },
     {
      "name": "Production and Processing",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.628
     },
     {
      "name": "Controlling Machines and Processes",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.606
     },
     {
      "name": "Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.593
     },
     {
      "name": "Equipment Maintenance",
      "layer": "skill",
      "dev": 0.578
     },
     {
      "name": "Operation and Control",
      "layer": "skill",
      "dev": 0.565
     }
    ],
    "under": [
     {
      "name": "Performing for or Working Directly with the Public",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.69
     },
     {
      "name": "Assisting and Caring for Others",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.496
     },
     {
      "name": "Therapy and Counseling",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.442
     },
     {
      "name": "Customer and Personal Service",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.419
     },
     {
      "name": "Medicine and Dentistry",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.416
     },
     {
      "name": "Psychology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.397
     }
    ]
   },
   "deviation_all": {
    "over": [
     {
      "name": "Mechanical",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.247
     },
     {
      "name": "Handling and Moving Objects",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.239
     },
     {
      "name": "Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.227
     },
     {
      "name": "Controlling Machines and Processes",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.224
     },
     {
      "name": "Equipment Maintenance",
      "layer": "skill",
      "dev": 0.19
     },
     {
      "name": "Repairing",
      "layer": "skill",
      "dev": 0.19
     }
    ],
    "under": [
     {
      "name": "Psychology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.213
     },
     {
      "name": "Therapy and Counseling",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.198
     },
     {
      "name": "Assisting and Caring for Others",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.196
     },
     {
      "name": "Sociology and Anthropology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.191
     },
     {
      "name": "Customer and Personal Service",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.177
     },
     {
      "name": "Medicine and Dentistry",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.174
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "fips": "18005",
   "county": "Bartholomew",
   "egr": 9,
   "total_emp": 50376.0,
   "avg_pay": 67653.0,
   "coverage": 0.6501,
   "n_industries": 53,
   "premium_exposure": -0.007207,
   "driver_share": 0.279651,
   "n_drivers": 6,
   "max_lq": 7.28,
   "driver_premium": 0.038125,
   "capabilities": {
    "Judgment and Decision Making": 2.8752,
    "Service Orientation": 2.8508,
    "Management of Financial Resources": 1.3338,
    "Science": 0.7319,
    "Time Management": 2.8924,
    "Programming": 0.624,
    "Coordination": 3.0355,
    "Mathematics": 2.3447,
    "Learning Strategies": 2.5339
   },
   "capability_index": 0.858099,
   "implied_occupations": 729,
   "capabilities_drivers": {
    "Judgment and Decision Making": 2.8768,
    "Service Orientation": 2.6098,
    "Management of Financial Resources": 1.3081,
    "Science": 0.8351,
    "Time Management": 2.8766,
    "Programming": 0.7554,
    "Coordination": 2.9597,
    "Mathematics": 2.4687,
    "Learning Strategies": 2.4978
   },
   "capability_index_drivers": 0.90288,
   "deviation_drivers": {
    "over": [
     {
      "name": "Mechanical",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.985
     },
     {
      "name": "Controlling Machines and Processes",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.91
     },
     {
      "name": "Production and Processing",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.789
     },
     {
      "name": "Handling and Moving Objects",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.726
     },
     {
      "name": "Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.707
     },
     {
      "name": "Engineering and Technology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.703
     }
    ],
    "under": [
     {
      "name": "Performing for or Working Directly with the Public",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.826
     },
     {
      "name": "Customer and Personal Service",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.734
     },
     {
      "name": "Communicating with People Outside the Organization",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.567
     },
     {
      "name": "Assisting and Caring for Others",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.505
     },
     {
      "name": "Therapy and Counseling",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.462
     },
     {
      "name": "Medicine and Dentistry",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.457
     }
    ]
   },
   "deviation_all": {
    "over": [
     {
      "name": "Mechanical",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.273
     },
     {
      "name": "Controlling Machines and Processes",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.262
     },
     {
      "name": "Handling and Moving Objects",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.258
     },
     {
      "name": "Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.226
     },
     {
      "name": "Production and Processing",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.2
     },
     {
      "name": "Operation and Control",
      "layer": "skill",
      "dev": 0.182
     }
    ],
    "under": [
     {
      "name": "Communicating with People Outside the Organization",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.199
     },
     {
      "name": "Customer and Personal Service",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.197
     },
     {
      "name": "Performing for or Working Directly with the Public",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.173
     },
     {
      "name": "Sociology and Anthropology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.163
     },
     {
      "name": "Psychology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.161
     },
     {
      "name": "Administrative",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.157
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "fips": "18007",
   "county": "Benton",
   "egr": 4,
   "total_emp": 2201.0,
   "avg_pay": 49280.0,
   "coverage": 0.4375,
   "n_industries": 17,
   "premium_exposure": -0.005159,
   "driver_share": 0.688474,
   "n_drivers": 8,
   "max_lq": 5.41,
   "driver_premium": 0.005888,
   "capabilities": {
    "Judgment and Decision Making": 2.9204,
    "Service Orientation": 2.7809,
    "Management of Financial Resources": 1.3789,
    "Science": 0.5406,
    "Time Management": 2.9412,
    "Programming": 0.6206,
    "Coordination": 2.9945,
    "Mathematics": 2.4031,
    "Learning Strategies": 2.4834
   },
   "capability_index": 0.882502,
   "implied_occupations": 646,
   "capabilities_drivers": {
    "Judgment and Decision Making": 2.9547,
    "Service Orientation": 2.7412,
    "Management of Financial Resources": 1.3875,
    "Science": 0.4613,
    "Time Management": 2.9622,
    "Programming": 0.6564,
    "Coordination": 2.9448,
    "Mathematics": 2.4219,
    "Learning Strategies": 2.457
   },
   "capability_index_drivers": 0.898334,
   "deviation_drivers": {
    "over": [
     {
      "name": "Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.438
     },
     {
      "name": "Transportation",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.363
     },
     {
      "name": "Repairing",
      "layer": "skill",
      "dev": 0.331
     },
     {
      "name": "Equipment Maintenance",
      "layer": "skill",
      "dev": 0.327
     },
     {
      "name": "Mechanical",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.301
     },
     {
      "name": "Operation and Control",
      "layer": "skill",
      "dev": 0.268
     }
    ],
    "under": [
     {
      "name": "Assisting and Caring for Others",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.533
     },
     {
      "name": "Medicine and Dentistry",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.435
     },
     {
      "name": "Psychology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.434
     },
     {
      "name": "Therapy and Counseling",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.409
     },
     {
      "name": "Sociology and Anthropology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.378
     },
     {
      "name": "Biology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.363
     }
    ]
   },
   "deviation_all": {
    "over": [
     {
      "name": "Operating Vehicles, Mechanized Devices, or Equipment",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.37
     },
     {
      "name": "Mechanical",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.329
     },
     {
      "name": "Repairing",
      "layer": "skill",
      "dev": 0.312
     },
     {
      "name": "Equipment Maintenance",
      "layer": "skill",
      "dev": 0.293
     },
     {
      "name": "Repairing and Maintaining Mechanical Equipment",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": 0.286
     },
     {
      "name": "Transportation",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": 0.272
     }
    ],
    "under": [
     {
      "name": "Assisting and Caring for Others",
      "layer": "work_activity",
      "dev": -0.401
     },
     {
      "name": "Psychology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.353
     },
     {
      "name": "Therapy and Counseling",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.33
     },
     {
      "name": "Medicine and Dentistry",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.329
     },
     {
      "name": "Sociology and Anthropology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.318
     },
     {
      "name": "Biology",
      "layer": "knowledge",
      "dev": -0.281
     }
    ]
   }
  },
  {
   "fips": "18009",
   "county": "Blackford",
   "egr": 6,
   "total_emp": 2976.0,
   "avg_pay": 46374.0,
   "coverage": 0.5948,
   "n_industries": 18,
   "premium_exposure": -0.0013,
   "driver_share": 0.60113,
   "n_drivers": 7,
   "max_lq": 46.15,
   "driver_premium": 0.022906,
   "capabilities": {
    "Judgment and Decision Making": 2.742,
    "Service Orientation": 2.7207,
    "Management of Financial Resources": 1.2642,
    "Science": 0.5964,
    "Time Management": 2.819,
    "Programming": 0.5074,
    "Coordination": 2.9864,
    "Mathematics": 2.307,
    "Learning Strategies": 2.4438
   },
   "capability_index": 0.815919,
   "implied_occupations": 663,
   "capabilities_drivers": {
    "Judgment and Decision Making": 2.6964,
    "Service Orientation": 2.5523,
    "Management of Financial Resources": 1.1997,
    "Science": 0.6265,
    "Time Management": 2.8053,
    "Programming": 0.4725,
    "Coordination": 2.9684,
    "Mathematics": 2.3068,
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    ]
   },
   "n_counties_with_drivers": 1
  }
 ]
}